Some sample Action Forms & responses

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SAMPLE ACTION FORM/RESPONSE #1

I. CONCERN TO BE ADDRESSED OR EVENT TO BE REACTED TO: As President of Egypt, I feel the Palestinian Resistance needs to be dealt with concerning their threat towards peace talks.

What are the main options that have been considered in addressing this matter? (Consider at least 4 different options, including "do nothing.")

II. Option 1: DO NOTHING A. Likelihood of success: none

B. Positive Outcomes: resistance may stop violent actions by themselves

C. Negative Outcomes: resistance may continue threats and violence towards peace talks

D. Principal proponent (Role(s) on your team): none

E. Principal opponent (Role(s) on your team): Osama al-Baz, Ahmed Maher and Hosni Mubarak


III. Option 2: Get together with the Resistance in Cairo and have a negotiation meeting about a cease-fire agreement or no more threats towards peace talks

A. Likelihood of success: fifty-fifty

B. Positive Outcomes: may agree on no more threats and help peace talks

C. Negative Outcomes: may not agree with anything and get in a big argument and accomplish nothing. Violence may ensue by inviting Resistance into Egypt

D. Principal proponent (Role(s) on your team): none

E. Principal opponent (Role(s) on your team): Ahmed Maher, Osama al-Baz and Hosni Mubarek


IV. Option 3: Special Egyptian forces capture Ahmed Saadat of the Palestinian Resistance and imprison him in order to force Marwan Barghouti and Sheikh Ahmed Yassin to stop interfering with peace talks. Egypt will capture Saadat without harming him and on account of his release, Marwan and Sheikh have to agree on a cease-fire agreement (no more attacks)

A. Likelihood of success: good chance, because Saadat refuses to hide.

B. Positive Outcomes: show the resistance who is in control and eliminate threats towards Egypt and the Palestinians

C. Negative Outcomes: Marwan may get aggravated and retaliate on innocent people

D. Principal proponent (Role(s) on your team): Ahmed Maher and Osama al-Baz

E. Principal opponent (Role(s) on your team): none


V. Option 4: Special Egyptian forces make an assasination attempt on Saadat or Barghouti (not Yassin).

A. Likelihood of success: fifty-fifty

B. Positive Outcomes: maybe we'll kill them and take them out

C. Negative Outcomes: may not kill them and they retaliate on people

D. Principal proponent (Role(s) on your team): Ahmed Maher, Osama al-Baz and Hosni Mubarek

E. Principal opponent (Role(s) on your team): none


VI. ACTION to be taken (from those listed above): Make assassination attempt.

VII. REASONS this option was decided upon: They refuse to reason with us and have ignored our proposals.

VIII. METHODS used: Undercover sniper assassin on top of a building.

IX. Probability of action being undertaken "realistically." (1-very low; 2-low; 3-fifty-fifty; 4-great; 5-very great; 6-certain.) (specify which number):

4- great

X. Outcomes to be achieved by success: No more threats interfering with peace talks.

XI. COSTS you are prepared to incur to achieve these outcomes: (Note: Costs include political or military, as well as financial, economic and other consequences.) Some countries may look down on us, especially if it fails.

XII. Probability of action being successful: (1-very low; 2-low; 3-fifty-fifty; 4-great; 5-very great; 6-certain.) (specify which number):

3-fifty-fifty

XIII. Consequences of failure: Some Palestinians may rise up and make terrorists attacks, because they may feel threatened.

XIV. Facilitator's reaction: It's somewhat against Mubarek's nature, but overt assassinations do occur to eliminate problems.


RESPONSE: RETURNED This is out of character for Egypt as they have been about diplomacy throughout this scenario. Many teams turn to violence at the end of the simulation, but the most effective teams continue with diplomacy as their primary form of achieving their objective. This is a reasonable action, but one that will lessen your team's success throughout this entire simulation. Your team has been tremendous!

SAMPLE ACTION FORM/RESPONSE #2

I. CONCERN TO BE ADDRESSED OR EVENT TO BE REACTED TO: Tension over our occupation of Golan Heights

What are the main options that have been considered in addressing this matter? (Consider at least 4 different options, including "do nothing.")

II. Option 1: DO NOTHING

A. Likelihood of success:10%

B. Positive Outcomes:We would still keep Golan Heights

C. Negative Outcomes:Syrians will feel that we are giving them the cold shoulder and declare a war against us.

D. Principal proponent (Role(s) on your team):No one wants this as it detracts from our goals of peace. (We've decided peace is more important and we're picking our battles instead of holding onto everything.)

E. Principal opponent (Role(s) on your team):Syrians


III. Option 2:Return Golan Heights Unconditionally

A. Likelihood of success:50%

B. Positive Outcomes: Our military power would be saved for battling the Palestinian resistance and we would be able to avoid war with Syria. Little negotiation will be needed as Syria will readily accept this proposition

C. Negative Outcomes:Our security cannot be ensured since Syria can use the hills as a strategic advantage in future events.

D. Principal proponent (Role(s) on your team):Syria

E. Principal opponent (Role(s) on your team):Israel Right


IV. Option 3:Wage a war

A. Likelihood of success:30%

B. Positive Outcomes:We would keep Golan Heights with a price. It is likely that we will win the war (we most likely have better military than the Syrians)

C. Negative Outcomes: We would gain a nasty reputation and lose support from the international community. In addition, innocent lives will be lost on both sides. The whole Middle East would have a justified excuse to attack us, there would also be the possibility that they would force us out of Palestinian Occupied Territories.

D. Principal proponent (Role(s) on your team):Israeli Right Super-hawks

E. Principal opponent (Role(s) on your team):Israeli Left, UN


V. Option 4:Grant political and economic repossession of the Golan Heights but not military. UN peacekeepers would ensure that no Syrian army is present in the territory. Request military and political support from Syria in the battle against the Palestinian Resistance.

A. Likelihood of success:95%

B. Positive Outcomes:Not only will Syria be honored by regaining control of Golan Heights, our security can be ensured at the same time. This compromise will also help us in any further negotiations by improving our reputation and having an ally in the region. The threat of the Palestinian Resistance can also be better dealt with when we have help.

C. Negative Outcomes:By elimintating the suicide bombers there would be one less target Israel Right would have, and that would possibily promote the Israel Left's ideology and allow others to pressure us into establishing a Palestinian state.

D. Principal proponent (Role(s) on your team):All leaders of Middle East and UN and US

E. Principal opponent (Role(s) on your team):Palestinian Resistance


VI. ACTION to be taken (from those listed above): 4

VII. REASONS this option was decided upon: Highest possibility of success. It satisifes the demands of all sides adequately and prevents bloodshed. We do however need to be cauious about other people telling us to let the Palestinians gain independence.

VIII. METHODS used: Conference convened by the EU

IX. Probability of action being undertaken "realistically." (1-very low; 2-low; 3-fifty-fifty; 4-great; 5-very great; 6-certain.) (specify which number): 5

X. Outcomes to be achieved by success: Peace with Syria will be restored and the safety of our citizens from a war with Syria and from resistance terrorists will be ensured. Tremendous boost of IsraelĂ­s reputation in the Middle East, political and military support against the common enemy of the Palestinian Resistance.

XI. COSTS you are prepared to incur to achieve these outcomes: Military power (Used to fight Palestinian Resistance).

Political power (Leftwingers might be voted as a new PM as there is one less target for the Right to accuse)

In addition, territorial, economic and financial loss of the Golan Heights itself, but the region is no longer very valuable to Israel, we are willing to abandon this struggle and focus our energies into more pressing goals such as ceasefire, preventing indpendence and maintaining our reputation.


XII. Probability of action being successful: (1-very low; 2-low; 3-fifty-fifty; 4-great; 5-very great; 6-certain.) (specify which number): 5


XIII. Consequences of failure: None. We will simply have to replan our strategy and keep negotiating

XIV. Facilitator's reaction:

Response: Approved This is a very well thought out action. Israel was very close to doing this in the early 90's, but chose against it. I want to thank your team personally for their hard and dedication to the simulation. You have played a major role in the game and it has been a pleasure being your mentor.

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